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Poles went to bed on Sunday thinking a centre-right candidate had won their presidential election. They woke to find a nationalist populist had squeaked home instead. Karol Nawrocki’s 51-49 per cent victory was wafer-thin, but a bitter reversal. It comes only 18 months after the return of the centrist Donald Tusk as prime minister seemed to open a path to restore democracy and rule of law in Poland after eight years of state capture by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party — which nominated Nawrocki. After right-wing losses in Canada, Australia and Romania, the result also marks a win in the heart of Europe for a candidate endorsed by Donald Trump’s Maga movement.
波兰人在周日晚上入睡时还以为中右翼候选人赢得了总统选举，醒来却发现，最终险胜的是一位民族主义民粹派。卡罗尔•纳夫罗茨基(Karol Nawrocki)以51%对49%的微弱优势获胜，这一结果极为接近，却带来了痛苦的逆转。就在18个月前，中间派的唐纳德•图斯克(Donald Tusk)重返总理职位，似乎为波兰在保守的法律与公正党(PiS)八年掌控国家后恢复民主和法治开辟了道路——而纳夫罗茨基正是该党提名的候选人。在加拿大、澳大利亚和罗马尼亚右翼接连失利后，这一结果也意味着一位获得唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)MAGAmovement支持的候选人在欧洲腹地取得了胜利。
Tusk’s coalition has so far been stymied by a confrontational, PiS-backed president, Andrzej Duda, who has blocked or delayed its reform efforts by using his powers to veto legislation or refer it to Poland’s constitutional court (packed with PiS appointees). The premier had staked his near-term political future on hopes that a supportive president — in the shape of Rafał Trzaskowski from his Civic Platform party — would soon unshackle him. Instead Nawrocki, a one-time football hooligan who has never held elected office, threatens to be even more hostile.
到目前为止，图斯克的联盟一直被一位对抗性的、由法律与公正党支持的总统安杰伊•杜达(Andrzej Duda)所阻挠。杜达通过行使否决权或将法案提交给由法律与公正党任命人员把持的波兰宪法法院，阻止或拖延改革进程。总理曾将自己近期的政治前途寄托在一位支持他的总统身上——即来自他所在公民纲领党(Civic Platform)的拉法乌•恰斯科夫斯基(Rafał Trzaskowski)——希望他能尽快为自己松绑。然而，卡罗尔•纳夫罗茨基，这位曾是足球流氓、从未担任过民选公职的人，却有可能变得更加敌对。
The Tusk camp must bear some blame. The prime minister’s instinct was understandably to move fast to restore checks and balances and judicial independence, not least to release EU funds blocked by Brussels over rule of law concerns. But his government immediately butted up against Duda, occasionally prompting it to resort to methods of borderline legality.
图斯克阵营必须承担一定责任。首相本能地希望迅速恢复制衡和司法独立，尤其是为了解冻因法治问题被布鲁塞尔冻结的欧盟资金，这一点可以理解。但他的政府很快就与杜达发生了冲突，有时甚至不得不采取接近法律边缘的做法。
Tusk arguably did too little to heal divisions in one of the most polarised democracies outside the US. What became a highly personal struggle between the premier and Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS co-founder and Tusk’s longtime nemesis, left a growing number of especially young voters feeling that neither party truly had their interests at heart. Many of those plumped for hard-right and hard-left candidates in the first round of the presidential election; Nawrocki relied on a good proportion switching to him to help him over the line in round two.
有人认为，图斯克在弥合这个除美国之外最两极分化的民主国家的分歧方面做得太少。总理与法律与公正党联合创始人、图斯克长期宿敌雅罗斯瓦夫•卡钦斯基(Jarosław Kaczyński)之间的高度个人化斗争，使越来越多的选民，尤其是年轻人，感到两大党都并未真正关心他们的利益。在总统选举第一轮中，许多人转而支持极右翼和极左翼候选人；卡罗尔•卡罗尔•纳夫罗茨基则依靠相当一部分选民在第二轮转投他，从而帮助他最终胜出。
Tusk has called a June 11 confidence vote which — since his coalition partners are unlikely to want to risk losing power — he ought to win, though such moves are always risky. But if Nawrocki uses his presidential powers to veto a budget he might still be able to force an early election.
图斯克已宣布将在6月11日举行信任投票——由于他的联盟伙伴们不太可能愿意冒失去权力的风险，他理应能够获胜，尽管此类举动总是存在风险。但如果卡罗尔•卡罗尔•纳夫罗茨基利用其总统权力否决预算案，他仍有可能促成提前大选。
To strengthen its chances of holding on in office until the next parliamentary election in 2027, and averting a PiS victory, it will require a change of approach. One route might be to adopt a more consensual programme, politically harder for the president to veto, that seeks directly to address voters’ main preoccupations, similar to those in many western countries: living costs and the burdens of immigration — though in Poland’s case mostly not from north Africa or the Middle East but from its war-torn neighbour, Ukraine.
为了增强其在2027年下一次议会选举前继续执政的机会，并避免法律与公正党获胜，政府需要改变现有的做法。其中一种途径可能是采取更具共识性的方案，使总统在政治上更难行使否决权，并直接回应选民最关心的问题，这些问题与许多西方国家类似：生活成本和移民压力——不过在波兰，移民主要来自其饱受战争蹂躏的邻国乌克兰，而非北非或中东。
For Poland’s European partners, one consolation is that Nawrocki and PiS do not share the pro-Russian leanings of, say, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. But the Eurosceptic Nawrocki is preoccupied with historical grievances between Poland and Germany, and opposes Kyiv’s Nato membership and EU efforts to build up its own defences independent of the US. His Poland may be a less solid partner in the “coalition of the willing” that the UK, France and Germany are assembling to bolster Ukrainian security. The fact, meanwhile, that right-wing populism can become so entrenched in a country that has been a standout economic success among the ex-communist states that joined the EU after 2004 is yet more evidence of how far mainstream parties are from learning how to counter it.
对于波兰的欧洲伙伴来说，唯一的安慰是，卡罗尔•卡罗尔•纳夫罗茨基和法律与公正党并不像匈牙利的欧尔班•维克托(Viktor Orbán)那样倾向亲俄。然而，这位持欧盟怀疑态度的卡罗尔•纳夫罗茨基却一直纠结于波兰与德国之间的历史恩怨，并反对基辅加入北约以及欧盟推动建立独立于美国的自身防御能力。他领导下的波兰，可能会成为英国、法国和德国正在组建、以加强乌克兰安全的“志愿联盟”中不那么可靠的伙伴。与此同时，民粹主义竟能在波兰这样一个自2004年加入欧盟以来，在前共产主义国家中经济表现最为突出的国家扎根，这进一步证明主流政党距离学会如何应对民粹主义还有很长的路要走。