For the past month or more, overnight interest rates in Hong Kong have been stuck just above zero per cent. Since everyone got used to ultra-low interest rates during the last couple of decades, it may not be immediately obvious how bizarre, unexpected and potentially alarming that situation is — or how it illustrates everything from the dwindling appetite of Asian investors for US assets, to a modest revival of Hong Kong’s capital markets, to surprising limits on the risk-taking capacity of banks and hedge funds.
过去一个多月来，香港隔夜利率一直维持在略高于零的水平。由于近几十年来所有人都习惯了超低利率，人们也许不会立刻意识到这种情况是多么奇怪，多么出人意料，并且潜在地令人担忧——他们也不会马上反应过来，这种情况说明亚洲投资者对美国资产兴趣下降，香港资本市场有所复苏，而银行和对冲基金的风险承受能力有限得令人吃惊。
Donald Trump’s gyrations on trade policy have not broken global financial markets just yet — but what is happening in Hong Kong shows they are feeling the strain.
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)反复无常的贸易政策还没有让全球金融市场崩盘——但香港当前的情况表明，金融市场开始感受到了压力。
The reason zero interest rates in Hong Kong are so odd is because its currency is pegged to the US dollar. That offers what seems like an easy arbitrage: borrow in Hong Kong at zero per cent, convert to dollars and earn US interest rates of more than 4 per cent. For an arbitrage, that is a large return, and since the currency is pegged the risk should be minimal. Yet for more than a month this divergence has continued. Every evening at seven o’clock the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announces the overnight rate. On Friday it stood, again, at 0.01 per cent.
香港利率为零之所以显得如此奇怪，原因在于港元是与美元挂钩的。这似乎提供了轻松的套利机会：以近乎为零的利率借入港元，兑换成美元，赚取超过4%的美国利率。就套利来说，这是很高的回报，而且，由于港币盯住美元，风险理应非常小。然而这样的息差已持续存在一个多月。香港金管局在每天晚上7点公布隔夜利率。上周五该利率仍然是0.01%。