When commodity prices plunge, producers turn off the taps. The Democratic Republic of Congo, home to three-quarters of the world’s cobalt, has done the next best thing by slapping a three-month suspension on exports. This is unlikely to reverse the pounding taken by the blue metal.
Cobalt, named for the evil spirits old-time miners took to be responsible for noxious fumes in their ore, is used in phones, jet engines and electric vehicle batteries. Optimism over electric vehicles pushed the price up to about $40 per pound in 2022, giving a nice ride to miners such as London-listed Glencore, which ruled the roost until being elbowed aside by China’s CMOC in 2023.
Naturally, supply boomed. As a byproduct of copper mining, production of cobalt rose alongside growing production of the red metal. CMOC deployed the low cost, high volume China playbook with aplomb, increasing production to the tune of 114,000 tons last year. That left Glencore well behind and vaulted CMOC’s own guidance of 60,000-70,000 tons. This year — pre-export halt — it is guiding for up to 120,000.
Cobalt stockpiles have also risen. In December, warehouses were holding 128 metric tons, according to the US Geological Survey, much of it likely in China.
Low prices, now around one-quarter of the 2022 peak, have not put the brake on CMOC’s ambitions. This is a low-cost operator and the incremental cost of producing cobalt alongside copper is small. And think of CMOC as a vertically integrated behemoth. Major shareholder CATL is the world’s biggest manufacturer of EV batteries. In addition to its near-25 per cent indirect holding in CMOC, the battery maker also took a 25 per cent stake in one of the mines.
Suspending exports is one of the few levers DR Congo can pull, but it is a weak one. Enforcement is one reason: borders are porous, and all the more so when conflict with neighbouring Rwanda is raging. Even assuming policing, more mining is coming on stream, including in Canada. Indonesia, producing cobalt from nickel, has more capacity.
On the demand side, technologies are changing. Car manufacturers are starting to switch from nickel manganese cobalt batteries to cobalt-free lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which have longer life cycles and fewer environmental issues. For now they pack less power but as technology improves, more will follow the likes of London electric buses powered by LFP batteries.
That suggests the picture will not change much for DR Congo. History shows those doing the extracting typically win when it comes to tussles over resources. Extractivism has had a long history in the global south; that is one thing technology has done nothing to change.