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After years of threats and posturing, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has finally backed his rhetoric and launched a large-scale military assault against Iran. Waves of Israeli air strikes have targeted the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme — striking Natanz, one of its main uranium enrichment plants — and its missile factories, and killed two top military commanders.
经过多年的威胁和姿态展示，以色列总理本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)终于将其言辞付诸行动，对伊朗发动了大规模军事打击。以色列一波又一波的空袭针对伊斯兰共和国的核项目——袭击了其主要铀浓缩工厂之一的纳坦兹——以及导弹工厂，并击毙了两名高级军事指挥官。
The veteran Israeli leader says his goal is to prevent the regime acquiring nuclear weapons, which Israel has long considered an existential threat. But by launching such a devastating assault on Iran he is igniting the full-blown war the world has feared since Hamas’s horrific October 7 2023 attack triggered regional hostilities.
这位资深的以色列领导人表示，他的目标是防止该政权获得核武器，以色列一直将其视为生存威胁。然而，他对伊朗发动如此毁灭性的打击，正在点燃自哈马斯(Hamas)于2023年10月7日发动可怕袭击并引发地区敌对以来，全球所担忧的全面战争。
He is gambling with the fate of the Middle East when the focus should be on US diplomatic efforts to secure a deal with Iran to curb its nuclear activities. But Netanyahu has long sought military action over diplomacy. It is difficult to see how the indirect talks between Washington and Tehran survive.
他正在拿中东的命运赌博，而此时的重点本应是美国政府通过外交努力，与伊朗达成协议以遏制其核活动。但内塔尼亚胡长期以来一直倾向于采取军事行动而非外交手段。很难想象华盛顿与德黑兰之间的间接谈判还能继续下去。
Tehran, ever more vulnerable and backed into a corner, is more likely to retaliate than negotiate in a bid to raise the stakes. That increases the risk of US troops being dragged into combat and conflict spilling over borders if the Islamic regime fears for its survival.
德黑兰变得愈发脆弱，被逼入绝境，更有可能选择报复而非谈判，以此来提高筹码。如果伊斯兰政权担心自身生存，这将增加美国军队被卷入战斗，以及冲突蔓延至其他国家的风险。
The world is rightly fearful. Oil prices jumped amid fears that Iran could seek to disrupt the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz or target energy assets in Gulf states. This would inflict more pain on an uneasy global economy. More important is the potential devastation of yet more war in a region that has endured 20 months of the most destructive and deadly conflict in decades.
全球的担忧是有道理的。由于担心伊朗可能试图扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的原油运输，或袭击海湾国家的能源资产，油价随之飙升。这将给本已不安的全球经济带来更多痛苦。更重要的是，在这个已经经历了二十个月来最具破坏性、最致命冲突的地区，更多战争的潜在毁灭性后果更加令人担忧。
Israel’s European allies and Gulf leaders must use whatever influence they have to try to rein Netanyahu in and bring Iran back to the table. The key here is the US president, the one leader with significant leverage over Israel. Donald Trump returned to the White House promising to end the war in Gaza and bring peace to the Middle East. But on his watch, an emboldened Netanyahu has escalated the offensive in Gaza and now opened an even bigger front.
以色列的欧洲盟友和海湾国家领导人必须利用他们所拥有的一切影响力，努力约束内塔尼亚胡，并促使伊朗重返谈判桌。关键在于美国总统，他是唯一对以色列拥有重大影响力的领导人。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)重返白宫时承诺要结束加沙战争，为中东带来和平。但在他任内，愈发强硬的内塔尼亚胡加大了对加沙的攻势，如今又开辟了更大的战线。
In public, Trump has said he prefers a deal to resolve the nuclear crisis and US officials have insisted they had no part in the first day of Israeli assault. But he seems to have acquiesced to Netanyahu’s assault. On Friday, Trump warned Iran of “even more brutal” attacks, as he urged Tehran to “make a deal”. He noted that a 60-day deadline he gave the republic to reach an accord had passed, while saying “now they have, perhaps, a second chance!”
在公开场合，特朗普表示他更倾向于通过协议解决核危机，而美国官员坚称他们没有参与以色列第一天的袭击。但他似乎已经默许了内塔尼亚胡的进攻。周五，特朗普在敦促德黑兰“达成协议”的同时，警告伊朗将面临“更加残酷”的打击。他指出，自己此前给伊朗达成协议设定的60天期限已经过去，同时表示：“现在他们也许有第二次机会！”
Trump may have calculated that he can use Israel to pressure Tehran to give up its nuclear programme. He may discover that Netanyahu has used him to drag the US into a war with Iran.
特朗普或许认为，他可以利用以色列向德黑兰施压，迫使其放弃核计划。但他可能会发现，内塔尼亚胡反而利用了他，把美国拖入与伊朗的战争。
The Islamic regime, facing its gravest threat in decades, should grab whatever diplomatic rope still exists. For too long, it has wilfully ignored the urgency of the world’s concern over its nuclear programme, provocatively expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels to become a nuclear threshold state. A malign influence across the region, it must realise its path is unsustainable and be willing to compromise to reach a nuclear deal.
伊斯兰政权正面临数十年来最严峻的威胁，应当抓住任何尚存的外交机会。长期以来，它蓄意无视全球对其核计划的紧迫关切，挑衅性地扩充接近武器级别的浓缩铀库存，成为一个核门槛国家。作为该地区的恶意势力，伊斯兰政权必须认识到其道路难以为继，并愿意作出妥协，以达成核协议。
But Trump, too, has a chance to show responsible leadership. The roots of the crisis can be traced to his flawed decision in 2018 to withdraw the US unilaterally from an accord that severely limited Iran’s nuclear activities, and with which it was complying. He must realise that it is in his and America’s interests to bring this conflict to a swift end. That means holding back Netanyahu with genuine threats of consequences. Being a friend to Israel should not mean giving Netanyahu a carte blanche to wage endless wars that keep the Middle East, including Israel itself, in turmoil.
但特朗普也有机会展现负责任的领导力。这场危机的根源可以追溯到他在2018年做出的一个错误决定——单方面让美国退出一项严格限制伊朗核活动、且伊朗一直在遵守的协议。他必须认识到，尽快结束这场冲突符合他本人和美国的利益。这意味着要以真正有分量的后果威胁来制约内塔尼亚胡。作为以色列的朋友，并不意味着要给内塔尼亚胡无限授权，让他发动无休止的战争，使中东地区，包括以色列本身，持续动荡。